CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z WED 22/12 - 06Z THU 23/12 2004
ISSUED: 22/12 08:58Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

General thunderstorms are forecast across western Norway, southern Spain, the Ionean Sea and the eastern Mediterranean region.

SYNOPSIS

Wednesday at 06Z... a strong westerly jet moves into Scandinavia. Convective activity developing in a polar air mas near the left exit region of the jet affecting western Norway could become thundery. From an elongated NE-SW oriented trough stretching from the western Alps to west of Morocco a closed low is cutting off. The low is expected to move southward along Moroccan west coast. Rising motions related to another trough over the Aegean Sea help sustain convective activity over the eastern Mediterranean. Given that shear is expected to be low, no severe weather -except perhaps a waterspout- is forecast with this activity.

DISCUSSION

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